Is Netflix On Its Way To World Domination Of Streaming?

Apr 18, 2018
Originally published on April 18, 2018 1:19 pm

Netflix blew past Wall Street expectations this week and added 7.4 million new subscribers between January and March — giving it a total of 125 million paying subscribers worldwide. Its popularity is leaving rivals Amazon and Hulu in the dust as it continues to add new content.

But can the service that made binge watching popular keep it up as a big rival gears up to take it on?

When House of Cards staring Kevin Spacey and Robin Wright premiered in 2013, it was groundbreaking TV. Big producers like HBO, Showtime and AMC, had turned it down. But as a subscription streaming service, Netflix had been able to gather a lot of data about its users and it saw a perfect fit.

Viewers loved it and it became the first original online-only series to receive major Emmy nominations.

"Right now, Netflix is the only game in town," says Daniel Ives, an analyst at GBH Insights. Ives says on average viewers spend 5 hours a week on Hulu and Amazon and 10 hours a week on Netflix. "They just continue to have just massive fuel in their tank," he says. "They have just a competitive moat that is widening."

The moat could get even bigger. Netflix signed deals with Shonda Rhimes, creator of hit shows such as Grey's Anatomy and Scandal, and Ryan Murphy, the producer behind Glee.

Plus, Netflix has expanded to 190 countries. That has allowed Netflix to create global hits such as Dark, a sci-fi horror drama — it's a bit like a German version of Stranger Thingsand the Spanish language thriller La Casa de Papel.

This year, Netflix also won an Academy Award for the documentary Icarus about doping among cyclists. Sid Ganis, a film producer and the former president of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, says Netflix has established itself as a place for high-quality content.

"If you go out there and pitch Netflix, you better have something good or very often they pass," he says. "I have my own personal experience with Netflix passing."

While a lot of people people see a big wide horizon for Netflix, Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, has been a skeptic. He points out that even one of its biggest hits, House of Cards, is licensed and so far Netflix has produced very little of its own original content.

"We think you've never heard of any of them, except Stranger Things," Pachter says. "You've never heard of Flaked, and if you've heard of The Ranch, it's only because Danny Masterson has been accused of rape."

Pachter sees a cloud over Netflix. Disney is going to pull its content from the site and create its own streaming service, and Disney is buying 21st Century Fox's Film and TV assets.

"Disney single-handedly can stick a dagger in Netflix's heart next year," Pachter says. "Let's see what they do."

While Netflix has been slowly building respect in Hollywood and around the world, Disney and Fox are already well-connected in the entertainment business — and they each have long track records of creating globally popular TV series and films. Together they could be formidable.

That's a lot of history for Netflix to overcome, but the streaming pioneer has made a success of breaking the old rules.

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DAVID GREENE, HOST:

Netflix blew past Wall Street expectations this week and added close to 7.5 million new subscribers. Its popularity has been leaving rivals Amazon and Hulu in the dust. NPR's Laura Sydell looks at whether the company that made binge watching a thing can keep this up.

LAURA SYDELL, BYLINE: Back in 2013, when "House Of Cards," starring Kevin Spacey and Robin Wright, premiered, it was groundbreaking TV. Big producers like HBO, Showtime, AMC had turned it down. But as a subscription streaming service, Netflix had been able to gather a lot of data about its users, and it saw a perfect fit.

(SOUNDBITE OF TV SHOW, "HOUSE OF CARDS")

ROBIN WRIGHT: (As Claire Underwood) I have a history with Francis. I have a future with him. And it's bigger than a moment.

SYDELL: It was bigger than a moment. The viewers loved it, and it became the first original online-only series to receive major Emmy nominations.

DANIEL IVES: Right now Netflix is the only game in town.

SYDELL: Daniel Ives is an analyst at GBH Insights who follows Netflix. Ives says, on average, viewers spend five hours a week on Hulu and Amazon and 10 hours a week on Netflix.

IVES: They just continue to have just massive fuel in the tank. They have just a competitive moat which is widening.

SYDELL: And the moat could get bigger. Netflix signed deals with Shonda Rhimes, creator of hit shows such as "Grey's Anatomy" and "Scandal," and Ryan Murphy, the producer behind "Glee." Plus Netflix has expanded to 190 countries. It allowed Netflix to create a global hit.

(SOUNDBITE OF TV SHOW, "DARK")

UNIDENTIFIED ACTRESS: (As character, speaking German).

SYDELL: "Dark," a sci-fi horror drama, was produced in Germany. Netflix says there's another season coming. This year, Netflix also won its first Academy Award for the documentary, "Icarus," about doping among cyclists. Sid Ganis, a film producer and the former president of the American Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, says Netflix has established itself as a place for high-quality content.

SID GANIS: You go out there and pitch Netflix, you better have something good. Or, very often, they pass. I have my own personal experience with Netflix's passing.

SYDELL: And while a lot of people see a big wide horizon for Netflix, Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, has always been a skeptic. Pachter points out that even one of its biggest hits, "House Of Cards," is licensed, he says so far Netflix has produced very little of its own original content.

MICHAEL PACHTER: And we think you've never heard of any of them, except "Stranger Things." You've never heard of "Flaked," and if you've heard of "The Ranch," it's only because Danny Masterson has been accused of rape.

SYDELL: And Pachter sees a cloud over Netflix. Disney is going to pull its content from the site and create its own streaming service. And Disney is buying 21st Century Fox's film and TV assets.

PACHTER: Disney singlehandedly can stick a dagger in Netflix's heart next year. Let's see what they do.

SYDELL: And while Netflix has been slowly building respect in Hollywood and around the world, Disney and Fox have a long track record of creating globally popular TV series and films. Laura Sydell, NPR News.

[POST-BROADCAST CORRECTION: In the audio version of this story, we say that Netflix won its first Academy Award for the documentary Icarus, but in fact Netflix had won an Academy Award in 2017 for the short film White Helmets. Also, we say Netflix added close to 7.5 million subscribers this week. In fact, it added them during the first quarter of the year.] Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.